A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
