The mean figure of daily killings per month in the country has dropped by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent official statistics. But, public safety experts have advised that murder figures might not point to enhanced countrywide security.
Notable Drop in Per-Day Figures
There was an average of close to 55 murders a day in the month of November as opposed to almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the chief of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.
“The result in murders that we’ve had over these past months is remarkably important,” Sheinbaum stated, adding that the previous month the smallest amount of murders were registered for any single November in the past 10 years.
Recent Background and Government Strategy
Violent cartel infighting, combined with the government’s highly military campaigns to take on the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.
That meant Mexico a murder rate over four times higher than the United States. However, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has credited her national security approach for an apparently steeper drop in homicides this year.
At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state said: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it every day.”
The central components of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:
- Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
- Improving information gathering and investigative capabilities.
- Increased coordination between government departments.
Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns
But, security analysts cautioned that focusing solely on homicide data to assess the situation of peace was problematic. This is particularly true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.
“It would be positive news if this were a drop, but I think we must not just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”
According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same period last year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.
“Data on homicides is no longer valid for gauging the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the capacity or the inclination to correctly recognize and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through disappearances.”
Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was similarly concerning because it might obscure days when there were notably spiking levels of murders.
“Employing the per-day mean makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he stated.
Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success
Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, according to official figures. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.
“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.
Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger
Yet despite these actions, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme bloodshed, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a prominent killing of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.
Weeks after, many thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to express their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.
“The government frames [data] in a way to build a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst concluded.
